🇺🇸👨⚖️ Trump's Charges: What You Need To Know
Happy Wednesday all,
I’ve been working on researching and writing a video on the U.S. Dollar and why I believe it will remain the world’s reserve currency in our lifetimes. That video should be out next week, but in the meantime - I posted a video on YouTube today about the 7 Places Your Money Needs To Go when you get paid. That will be linked at the end of this newsletter.
In an effort to try and get to know you guys better, as well as find stories to cover from a wider range of industries, we want you guys to answer the poll below. If your industry isn’t on the list, feel free to reply to this email or comment below in Substack and let us know what you do!
Enjoy this week’s Hump Days!
- Humphrey, Rickie & Tim
The Weekly Brief
Key Fed Inflation Gauge Rose 0.3% in February, Less Than Expected (CNBC)
A Fed-favorite inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy, increased 0.3% in February for the month and came in below the 0.4% Dow Jones estimate and lower than the 0.5% January increase. Experts suggest the trend looks promising and inflation is likely to be below 4% by the end of the year.
Why Does it Matter?
This is a positive sign that previous interest rate hikes are working to tame hot inflation. We still have a long way to go, but this will give some leverage to the Fed if they need to cut rates again should the economy fall into recession.
Finland Joins NATO as Russia’s War Rages on in Ukraine (Al Jazeera)
Finland has officially joined NATO as the world’s largest military alliance’s 31st member. The move to apply stemmed back almost one year ago, triggered by the war in Ukraine. Finland looks forward to Sweden’s approval but their application is being stalled by objections from Turkey and Hungary. Russian Defence Minister Shoigu said that Finland’s accession “creates the risk of a significant expansion of the conflict [in Ukraine],” according to a transcript from his ministry.
Why Does it Matter?
Finland shares an 800-mile border with Russia, which has been very vocal against NATO’s eastward expansion. This marks the next evolution in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with Russia already committed to boosting military capacity in its wester and northwestern regions.
Toronto-Dominion Becomes Biggest Bank Short with $3.7B on the Line (Bloomberg)
The next biggest bank short can be found in the relatively tame financial center of Canada. Short sellers have upped their bearish bets against TD Bank citing a declining banking sector after three U.S. regional banks failed and Credit Suisse was forced into a sale with UBS. Additionally, analysts have raised concerns about TD’s exposure to the Canadian housing market slowdown and its ties to the U.S. market through its stake in Charles Schwab.
Why Does it Matter?
Traders are seeing trends in the Canadian housing market, where variable-rate mortgages are commonplace and, as a result of rate increases, consumer insolvencies are already on the rise. To contrast, while TD is at the top of the list of bearish bets in the financial industry, consider that short interest remains relatively low as a percentage of TD’s shares available for trading at 3.3%
Hump Days Scoop
On Tuesday, Donald Trump pleaded not guilty to 34 felony charges of falsifying business records, marking the first time in American history that a former president has been charged with a crime. This week, we lay out in plain language the allegations against Trump and what this could possibly mean for his 2024 re-election campaign.
What has Trump been indicted for?
Manhattan prosecutors are accusing Trump of falsifying business records to conceal criminal conduct that hid damaging information from the voting public during the 2016 presidential election.
The charges relate to a $130,000 payment made to keep Stormy Daniels, an adult actress who claimed to have an affair with Trump in 2006, quiet. Hush money is not illegal but where Trump got tied up was the fact that his lawyer, Michael Cohen, made the payment to Daniels and Trump reimbursed Cohen under the guise of “legal fees”.
Falsifying records is normally classified as a misdemeanor, but the New York District Attorney is in preparation to prove that the records were falsified with the intent to commit or conceal another crime, which would be a felony. District Attorney Alvin Bragg referenced a New York state law that makes it a crime to conspire to promote candidacy by unlawful means and that the falsified business records were made with the intent of concealing criminal conduct connected to the 2016 campaign.
What are the facts of the case?
The New York District Attorney released a 13-page statement of facts which we will break down into a few bullet points.
Trump and Cohen worked out a reimbursement deal in the Oval Office in Feb. 2017 where Trump personally signed checks to reimburse Cohen amounting to $420,000, with an extra $180,000 to cover his income tax exposure and a $60,000 bonus on top of that.
Checks were cut monthly to Cohen, including some coming directly from Trump’s bank account. These checks were allegedly disguised as attorney payments when they were not. In fact, there was no retainer agreement between the two parties.
A media company, American Media Inc (AMI) paid off another woman who allegedly had an affair with Trump so she did not publicize damaging allegations before the 2016 election and thereby influence that election.
According to Cohen’s federal guilty plea, Cohen worked at the direction of Trump to arrange payment for the two women to stop harmful stories from being published.
Prosecutors allege that participants in the alleged illegal scheme, including Cohen, have admitted the payoffs to the two women were unlawful.
How will Trump’s 2024 campaign be affected by his criminal charges?
The charges cannot stop Trump from continuing his election campaign and even in the event that he was imprisoned (albeit unlikely), he could theoretically still run for president and win.
What makes this case so interesting is that for pretty much any other political candidate, this would be a death blow to their chances, but for Trump, that does not seem to be the case.
Trump has already leveraged his legal troubles to fundraise more than $8M in recent days and experts believe that Trump’s indictment may strengthen support among the Republican base for 2024. This likely helps keep Trump’s name in the spotlight and earns him votes in the Republican primary, but in the general election, it likely hurts him. The Republican party had already been stirred by news that Trump’s indictment was coming and voters may see Trump as a liability, especially given his refusal to accept the 2020 election, the criminal and civil investigations, and the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol.
No one really knows what’s going to happen or how this will affect the 2024 election, considering we have no real history on which to base arguments. This is all speculation, and with Trump, we never really know to what lengths he can go to and still garner support for his campaign.
Chart of the Week
A recent survey conducted by Pew Research Center has revealed that only 48% of American workers utilize all of their allocated vacation days. The reasons given by those who don't take all their time off include not feeling the need to, concerns about falling behind at work, feeling guilty about leaving their colleagues to pick up the slack, and fearing that taking time off could negatively impact their chances for a promotion or even result in job loss.
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