🛍️🛒 Who Else Saw THAT Temu Ad?

Happy Wednesday all,

Hope you’re having a good week so far!

The 49ers lost over the weekend. What a tough way to end the season ☹️. I thought for sure SF was going to score a TD in overtime after the defensive holding call.

For those in relationships, I hope you bought/received flowers for Valentine’s Day! I just hope that they didn’t completely break the bank. Yesterday, I walked by a few flower shops and the prices they’re charging just seem outrageous to me! They looked cool, I guess. 🤷‍♂️

If you haven’t gotten a chance to check out the latest YouTube video, it’s linked at the bottom of the newsletter. It’s one of our best videos to date!

Enjoy this week’s Hump Days!

- Humphrey, Rickie & Tim

👀 Eye-Catching Headlines

❤️ Valentine’s Day chocolate prices highest in years amid cocoa shortage (CNBC)

🤑 X Hopes to Lure Creators, Take On YouTube With New Ad Targeting (Bloomberg)

🏈 Super Bowl smashes U.S. viewership record, highest since moonwalk broadcast (Reuters)

🧠 Early Adopters of Microsoft’s AI Bot Wonder if It’s Worth the Money (WSJ)

🚗 The Cost of Car Ownership Is Getting Painful (WSJ)

📦 Bezos Sells $4 Billion of Amazon Stock in Four Trading Days (Bloomberg)

⛽️ OPEC Sticks to Oil-Demand Growth View, Lifts Economic Forecast (WSJ)

⭐️ Celebrity-Packed Super Bowl Ads Won the Game Within the Game, Surveys Show (WSJ)

👨‍⚖️ House Republicans impeach Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas (CNBC)

The Weekly Brief

1. U.S. Inflation Tops Forecasts in Blow to Fed Rate-Cut Hopes (Bloomberg)

• In January, inflation surged unexpectedly, with a significant portion of service prices increasing by the most in nearly two years.

• The inflation spike, particularly in housing costs, diminished the likelihood of the Fed lowering interest rates soon, with some policymakers advocating for easing price pressures before considering rate cuts.

• The S&P 500 fell and treasury yields jumped after the release.

• According to Bloomberg Ecomonics, the January CPI reports shows it won’t be a smooth path back to 2% inflation and that the base case for the Fed is to begin cutting rates in May.

• Fed officials have one more CPI print before their next policy meeting in March.

  • Though policymakers have already indicated rates are likely to stay on hold for a fifth straight meeting

2. Lyft Shares Pull Way Back After CFO Corrects Major Earnings Release Error (CNBC)

• Lyft shares shot up 60% in extended trading yesterday but since pulled back after the company’s CFO acknowledged a major error in the press release.

• Rather than projecting 5% growth for 2024, the actual increase is only projected to be 1/10th of that at 0.5%.

• The stock pulled back from +60% to +16% after the correction.

• While Lyft posted better than expected earnings, the stock has struggled since its IPO in 2019 - down more than 80% off its debut price.

3. Temu Spent Millions on Six Super Bowl Ads as it Tries to Win Back U.S. Shoppers (Bloomberg)

• Temu aired its advertisement six times and offered $10M in giveaways in hopes of reinvigorating wavering U.S. growth.

• Observed sales were down 12.5% in December and 4.8% in January, representing a sharp drop from its >50% growth in mid-2023.

• With the cost of a 30-second slot at the Super Bowl being about $7M, Temu’s ad spend may have run into the tens of millions of dollars.

• The number of Americans shopping on Temu is also in decline and according to a survey from Morgan Stanley, nearly a third of its users plan to shop less on the app over the next three months.

• The declining revenue and users is a concern for analysts who question whether Temu’s explosive growth in the U.S. may be cresting before it presents a threat to Amazon.

Chart of the Week

In Case You Missed It