🇺🇸📈 Stocks Surge Following Trump Win
Happy Wednesday all,
What a whirlwind week in politics and markets! Following a dramatic election, Donald Trump has clinched the presidency, sparking a surge in the stock market as investors anticipate a new era of deregulation and an “America First” agenda.
Meanwhile, economic shifts are already in motion. China’s exports hit a 27-month high, though the threat of new tariffs under Trump’s leadership looms large. As markets recalibrate, we’re seeing signs of optimism tempered with caution, as analysts assess what this new leadership could mean for trade, energy, and global relations. Let’s dive into the details of this post-election shake-up!
Enjoy this week’s Hump Days!
- Humphrey & Rickie
👀 Eye-Catching Headlines
The Miscalculations That Sent Kamala Harris to a Devastating Loss (WSJ)
How Trump Won the Economy-Is-Everything Election (WSJ)
How the Trump Whale Correctly Called the Election (WSJ)
Trump win and threat of tariffs raises expectations for more China stimulus (CNBC)
What Looked Like a Toss-Up Turned Into a Red Wave. Did Pollsters Get It Wrong? (BBG)
The Weekly Brief
After a dramatic race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the Associated Press officially called the state of Wisconsin for Trump on Wednesday, 5:34AM EST, sealing his victory to become President of the United States.
The victory by Trump makes it the first time that a Republican candidate has won the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004, when he was reelected over John F. Kerry.
To find the next case of a Republican winning the popular vote, you’d have to go back another 16 years to when Bush’s father, George H. W. Bush, won the 1988 election over Michael S. Dukakis.
So how did Trump manage to pull this off?
Across the US, the data shows that urban voters did not come through strongly enough for Harris, while people in rural areas turned out in a massive way for Trump.
Trump improved on his 2020 margin in ~90% of counties nationwide.
Trump also gained support among huge groups of the electorate compared to 2020. Asian, Black, Hispanic and white voters all moved towards Trump.
Harris only increased her vote share among the 65+ year-olds and white college-educated women.
Markets Jump as Trump Secures Presidency
Meanwhile, markets had their best post-election day performance in history.
According to John Authurs at Bloomberg, “Investors think [Trump will] be fantastic for banks (largely because of deregulation), and terrible for his own industry of real estate (which could be harmed by higher rates); great for crypto, great for stocks in the US relative to everyone else (because America First), and great for coal at the expense of clean energy:
China Export Growth Jumps to 27-Month High as Tariff Risks Loom
China's export growth surged in October 2024, reaching its fastest pace since July 2022 with a 12.7% increase YoY to $309 billion. These exports coupled with a 2.3% decline in imports, resulted in a trade surplus of $96 billion, the third-highest on record.
The export boom has sparked concerns and potential trade tensions, particularly with the United States, as Donald Trump's election and his threats of imposing tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese goods could significantly impact future trade relations.
You’ll Find This Interesting
“Politics may not matter as much as one would think, but elections can set the near-term narrative. Interestingly, post-election price momentum typically continues into following weeks”
“The direction of two-week returns following the day after an election was the same as the direction of the day after the election 100% of the time during the prior seven elections (since 1996) and 79% of the time since 1928.” - Bank of America
Chart of the Week
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