📉🫨 NVDA’s $1T Slide

Jul 09, 2026

Happy Wednesday all,

Humphrey here! Just got back from Norway last week and had an excellent time relaxing, hiking, and visiting Geirangerfjord: one of the places I had wanted to visit ever since I was a teenager. Back then, I found out about it from a desktop wallpaper pack that I downloaded. Here’s a pic that I took (with the long exposure setting on):

Now, it’s time to get back to work. Exciting videos upcoming on the channel, including an updated version of 401(k) balances by every age group, for 2026. I hope you tune in this week!

Enjoy this week’s Hump Days!

- Humphrey & Rickie

👀 Eye-Catching Headlines

Fed officials were split on direction of interest rates at last meeting, minutes show (CNBC)

Trump says he’s ‘not sure’ he wants Iran deal as Hormuz Strait strife deepens (CNBC)

IMF Drops Recession Warning in Wake of June Ceasefire (WSJ)

Summer Driving Season Is Here, and More Americans Than Ever Are Hitting the Road (WSJ)

Blue Owl Unveils Infrastructure Venture Catering to Data Centers (BBG)

SpaceXAI, Cursor Unveil Grok AI Model for Coding, Finance Tasks (BBG)

The Weekly Brief

Fed Minutes Reveal Growing Appetite for Rate Hikes

Minutes from the Fed’s June 16-17 meeting under new Chairman Kevin Warsh revealed that a few officials explicitly argued for raising rates at that meeting, though the committee ultimately voted unanimously to hold.
- More broadly, the minutes showed policymakers increasingly concerned about inflation even as labor market worries receded slightly, where nine of nineteen now see at least one rate hike this year and six expect at least two.
The Fed laid out two key scenarios: if inflation moderates, rates stay put or eventually fall; but if elevated AI-driven demand, high energy prices, and tariffs keep inflation hot, “some policy firming would likely be warranted.”
- Those concerns were validated a week later when the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE index, came in at 4.1% year-over-year, the hottest reading since April 2023.
The next key data point is June CPI on July 14, the same day Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee for the first time as chairman.
- Markets are currently pricing in one to two quarter-point rate hikes before year-end.

Trump Says US May Strike Iran Again, Threatens New Blockade

The U.S. launched strikes on more than 80 sites in Iran overnight, deploying nearly 40 fighter jets and drones against air defense systems, command networks, and coastal radar installations.
- Trump said further strikes were likely and threatened to reimpose the naval blockade on Iranian ports that was lifted as part of the interim peace deal, as well as potential strikes on desalination and power infrastructure.
The U.S. also revoked the oil sales waiver it had granted Iran, effectively ripping up a key economic concession from the June memorandum of understanding.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry declared the interim deal “ineffective,” and an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader promised an “immediate response.” Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it struck U.S. military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain in retaliation.
Negotiations are also currently suspended as Iran holds a weeklong state funeral for Supreme Leader Khamenei, who was assassinated on the first day of the conflict in February.

Nvidia’s $1 Trillion Slide Sends Valuation to Pre-AI Boom Levels

Nvidia’s stock has fallen 16% from its May all-time high, erasing roughly $1 trillion in market value and leaving the company trading at just 18 times forward earnings, cheaper than the S&P 500 (20x) and the Nasdaq 100 (23x), and the lowest valuation since before the AI boom began in early 2019.
Wall Street has actually been raising earnings estimates, and Nvidia still commands a staggering 97% share of the server GPU market. Instead, the AI trade has rotated.
- Investors have shifted their enthusiasm toward memory chip makers like Micron (up 229% this year) and SK Hynix, as well as rivals AMD and Intel, which have both doubled or tripled in 2026.
For investors, the disconnect between Nvidia’s valuation and its fundamentals is striking. The company is projected to deliver $228 billion in profit on $393 billion in revenue in fiscal 2027, growth of roughly 90% and 82% respectively.