š¾ I Almost Got Scammed IRL
This is a story of how I almost got scammed in real life. On Friday, I was walking down a semi-busy street in a safe neighborhood of San Francisco in broad daylight when these two guys pull up in a Ford Explorer and roll their windows down.
āHey man, want a free projector or GoPro? We just got done with an install, and thereās some leftover camera equipment weāre giving away!ā
I replied, āreally? Hell yeah! Sureā.
The guy in the passenger seat gets out of the car and proceeds to open the trunk. From left to right in the trunk, there are projector screens, 8K projectors, a couple of GoPros, and some sound bars, along with some invoices that are in plain sight - clearly, they were doing some home-video install and just finished a jobā¦. or thatās what they wanted me to think. They made up a story that sounded convincing, that if they brought the inventory back to their boss that their boss would just have to write it off as āunused inventoryā.
The guy grabs the GoPro to show me, which by the way, is called a āPS5 ProShotā. He said these models came out just last year, and on the box, it says āMSRP: $829.99ā with a QR code. Iāve never heard of this brand before, but I go along with it until he says, āListen, man, these retail for $800 bucks. What are you willing to pay? Like $300 or $400? Weāll give you a good dealā all the while pressuring me for time. A few minutes later, Iām still mulling the decision in my head. It seems like a good deal, but there are alarm bells sounding off in my head.
āDid I just get IRL-clickbaited?ā I asked myself. First, these things were FREE, and now the dude wants $400 dollars. In addition, I realized the trunk setup was too perfect. The invoices were right in my line of sight, making everything look legit. My suspicion led me to start leafing through the invoicesā¦ which upset the driver: āStop looking through our s**t!ā and overall, he got more aggressive as he realized I was catching on to the con. All the invoices had the same thing written on them. The rest of the goods were off-brand as well and were shrink-wrapped but looked like it was done secondhand.
The dealbreaker, though? I looked up āPS5 ProShotā online, and there was one eBay page where it was listed for $329 and one landing page. The landing page looked sketchy to me. Iāll link it here, itās a dummy landing page. I plugged it into Builtwith.com in front of the guy and showed him that it was a sh*tty website made with GoDaddy. That pretty much ended the scam then and there. He got back in his car, pissed off that I āwasted his time,ā unwilling to admit that he was just trying to scam people.
The funny thing was that I felt safe the entire time. This was a con engineered to make it seem like they were just ādoing an act of kindnessā and that they wanted to pay it forward. If I were less skeptical, I probably would have fallen for it, and Iām sure it has to work on some people. It really did seem believable.
Moral of the story? If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. And if someone offers you something for FREE but then baits and switches you - alarm bells should go off in your head. Itās actually a lot harder to do this in the heat of the moment.
Anyway, we have a great Sunday Primer for you all :) Happy Sunday. If you watch golf, let me know who you got winning the PGA Championship.
ā Humphrey, Tim & Rickie
Market Report
Debt Ceiling Update
The ongoing battle over the U.S. debt ceiling has been creating quite a stir, and it may significantly impact the economy and people's finances. Essentially, the debt ceiling is like a credit limit set for the government's borrowing, currently around $31.4 trillion. This ceiling helps regulate how much the government can owe to creditors. If lawmakers don't agree on raising this cap, we risk defaulting on our financial obligations. This situation means the government may fail to make timely payments to those it owes money to, such as bondholders, social security recipients, and even the military.
Political leaders have been at loggerheads over this issue. The Republicans insist on integrating spending cuts into the deal, along with new work requirements for Medicaid and certain food stamp beneficiaries. On the other side, President Biden opposes the proposed work requirements. The standoff also involves discussions on unused Covid-19 funds and expedited permits for energy projects. The failure to agree on these terms is stalling the debt ceiling talks.
Defaulting on the debt, or even coming close, could have serious repercussions. It could result in a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, as we saw in 2011. A lower credit rating makes borrowing more expensive, not just for the government but also for everyday businesses and households. These consequences can slow economic growth and even lead to a recession.
So, how does this impact your personal investments? During the 2011 credit downgrade, the U.S. stock market (S&P 500) fell by 16% in just ten days, and market volatility increased. This scenario could repeat, causing fluctuations in the stock market. U.S. Treasury bonds, considered safe havens during financial turbulence, could also be affected. Despite the irony of Treasury payments being one of the obligations potentially defaulted on, these bonds might still attract investors looking for less risk.
To protect your investments from such uncertainty, diversifying your portfolio is key. Having a mix of different types of investments (stocks, bonds, etc.) can cushion against potential losses. Also, investing with a clear understanding of your financial goals and timelines can help navigate short-term market volatility. Additionally, some investors are turning to alternative assets like gold and even cryptocurrencies as a hedge against a potential default or downgrade.
While President Biden is hopeful about avoiding a default and reaching a sensible resolution, the clock is ticking. The Treasury Department is nearing the end of its extraordinary measures to avoid a payment default.
Debt-limit negotiators will resume discussions in Washington ahead of a meeting on Monday between President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy as time grows short to avert a U.S. default.Ā
Americaās Disapproval of JPow
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently hinted at a potential pause in interest-rate increases next month. The policy shift comes amid uncertainty regarding the aftereffects of recent policy tightening and recent banking stresses. Powell's remarks have led investors to significantly reduce their expectations of a rate hike next month, dropping from a 33% expectation to around 13%. These comments align with other Fed officials' guidance, including that of New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Philip Jefferson.
Over a little more than a year, the US central bank has aggressively increased interest rates by five percentage points in a bid to combat high inflation. However, not all officials agree on this strategy. Some, including Governor Michelle Bowman and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, believe the Fed should continue to raise rates due to insufficient evidence of rapidly cooling price pressures. However, Powell's position diverges from this view, citing economic headwinds due to the recent collapse of four regional US banks. While the future course of rate hikes remains uncertain, these developments suggest a potential shift in the Fed's stance on interest rate increases.
Public faith in Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's leadership has suffered a severe blow, according to a recent Gallup poll. The survey found that only 36% of U.S. adults have a "great deal" or a "fair amount" of confidence in Powell's ability to make the right decisions for the economy. This percentage is lower than Janet Yellen's approval rating of 37% during her initial year as Fed Chair in 2014 and is the lowest level recorded since Gallup started monitoring public confidence in the Fed Chair in 2001.
Public confidence in the Fed is often reflective of the overall health of the economy. In the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic in April 2020, Powell's approval rating hit a high of 58%, the highest level of public confidence in a Fed Chair since Alan Greenspan's tenure in 2004. However, as the Fed started raising interest rates to tackle surging inflation, Powell's approval plummeted.
Interestingly, politics also seem to color perceptions of the Fed. While Powell has the trust of 60% of Democrats, only 21% of Republicans share that sentiment. This political divide contrasts sharply with his tenure under former President Donald Trump when Republicans' confidence in Powell outpaced Democrats' by an average of 14 percentage points.
Forecast Ahead
Big Number: 6.7 million independent professionals
The independent professional workforce in the US is growing, with more than one in every 25 professionals now working independently, according to a new survey conducted by the Freelancers Union in conjunction with Fiverr. The study found that there were approximately 6.7 million independent professionals in 2022, a 2.2% increase from the previous year. This growth trend has been particularly noticeable during the pandemic, with more people, especially women seeking flexibility for childcare, leveraging the possibilities of remote work. Most of these skilled independent professionals are located in the country's 30 largest cities, including New York, Los Angeles, and Miami.
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