👾💻 Are We In A Crypto Bubble? + The Week Ahead!
Hello friends,
Happy Sunday from a rainy San Francisco. One thing I’ve been paying attention to recently is cryptocurrency as Bitcoin nears its all time highs again, and trying to answer the question of how long will this cycle last? Take a look at this chart:
If you look at past crypto cycles, every bubble is shorter and also lower in magnitde than the one before it. Gains by years:
2013-2014: 9300%
2017: 2300%
2021: 260%
While we can’t predict the future based on past cycles alone, this can still help to serve us in that we may not see Bitcoin’s price hit $200K+ this cycle, but $100K+ is not out of the realm of possibility. The ETF inflows from the Bitcoin Spot ETF have really been increasing the volume invested, as well as traded, into Bitcoin.
If you are investing in crypto or Bitcoin: you always want to make sure you know exactly why you are getting into it and what time period you’re holding for, e.g. long/short/medium term. If you are doing the latter two, try to write down what price you’d be happy to sell at. It’s not likely you’ll time the absolute top or bottom, but if you’re happy with your gains - taking profit is never a bad decision.
The biggest lessons I’ve learned from crypto and it will sound a little trite: do the opposite of what other people are doing. If others are being greedy — you should be fearful. If others are fearful, you should be greedy. It’s hard to take your emotions completely out of it though. Those are my thoughts. If you’d like to continue the discussion on crypto - check out my free Discord where we have a channel dedicated to that.
Have a great Sunday,
— Humphrey, Tim, Rickie
Market Report
Inflation Ticks Higher as Consumer Spending Declines
In January, the Fed's core PCE price index, an indicator of inflation that excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.4% from the previous month and 2.8% from the previous year, marking the fastest increase in nearly a year.
Despite a robust holiday shopping season, inflation-adjusted consumer spending declined for the first time in five months, and real disposable income remained largely unchanged.
WSJ Survey Shows Voters Are More Upbeat on Economy, but Biden Gets Little Benefit
A recent Wall Street Journal survey found a slight improvement in voters' economic optimism, with an increase in those viewing the economy and their personal finances positively over the past 4 years.
However, this increase in sentiment has only marginally improved the approval of President Biden, as concerns over inflation and his handling of other issues like immigration persist.
Despite the economic uptick, Trump maintains a slight lead over Biden in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, with inflation and immigration emerging as significant voter concerns.
The poll also highlights Biden's challenges related to his age and leadership, while Trump's policies and personal attributes receive mixed reactions from the electorate.
Lawyers seek nearly $6 billion in Tesla stock after getting Musk pay package struck down
Lawyers who successfully contested Elon Musk's 2018 $56 billion pay package as unlawful are requesting nearly $6 billion in Tesla stock as their fee, a sum that would set a new precedent for attorney compensation.
The Delaware chancery court had earlier revoked Musk’s pay package, finding it unfair to shareholders.
The attorneys are asking for over 11% of the shares initially allocated to Musk, equating to more than 29.4 million shares based on Tesla's closing stock price on Friday.
Congress unveils first six budget bills as government shutdown clock ticks
Congressional lawmakers unveiled the first six of twelve necessary budget bills to prevent a government shutdown, with the package now proceeding to the House for a vote before a March 8 deadline.
Both Democratic and Republican leaders claim victories in the package, highlighting achievements in areas such as food assistance programs and veterans' gun ownership, respectively.
The remaining six funding bills must be negotiated before a March 22 deadline to secure a comprehensive budget for the fiscal year, amidst potential opposition from conservative factions within the House.