🛒📦 All Eyes on Black Friday!
Welcome to the Sunday Primer,
Hope everyone (in the U.S.) is home for Thanksgiving! We’ve got a slower week ahead with just 3.5 days of open markets but we’re sure Elon & Twitter will do their part to keep us entertained throughout. If you’re not on Twitter, I have been curating the biggest tweets surrounding current events on my Instagram stories so be sure to follow so you’re always up to date (and for my favorite memes!).
- Humphrey, Rickie & Tim
Market Report
The stock market basically traded flat this week as Federal Reserve officials continued to talk tough on interest rates in an attempt to keep market expectations in check.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that the Fed needs to keep raising interest rates given that its tightening so far "had only limited effects on observed inflation."
Meanwhile, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said that it's hard to know how high the U.S. central bank will need to raise interest rates but it should not stop until it's clear that inflation has peaked.
As Elon Musk continues to shake up the Twitter organization (mass firings, ultimatum for employees to commit to a ‘hardcore’ environment, reinstating Donald Trump’s account), his acquisition of the company is facing U.S. government scrutiny over national security concerns.
Per Bloomberg, “The U.S. government continues to seek information on confidential agreements that Musk made with foreign investors who hold stakes in Twitter after he bought it, and whether those deals allow them to access users’ personal data”.
COP27 climate talks ended early Sunday with a deal to create a fund to pay poorer countries for the harm caused by climate change. This has long been a debate as to whether richer countries are responsible to the developing world for the harm caused by rising temperatures. Regardless, the summit took place amidst an interesting global backdrop. The global energy crisis sparked by the Russian/Ukraine war raised debate as to how the world should navigate the transition away from fossil fuels while also maintaining its own energy security.
Forecast Ahead
Thanksgiving and Black Friday (November 24 & 25)
Next week will be a shortened week for U.S. markets as markets will be closed for Thanksgiving and will close early on Friday (1PM EST). Economists and analysts will be closely following Black Friday shopping activity, which is a great indicator of consumer confidence and the strength of the retail sector heading into the holiday season.
FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wednesday, November 23rd)
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release meeting minutes from the FOMC’s latest policy meeting. The meeting minutes will give investors some clues as to how high the Fed is willing to raise rates to. Since March, the Fed has raised interest rates by a cumulative 3.75% and is expected to raise rates by another 0.5% in December, putting the fed funds rate at the highest level since 2007.
Corporate Earnings (Throughout Week)
Monday, November 21st - Agilent Technologies (A), Dell Technologies (DELL), Zoom Video Communications (ZM), J.M. Smucker Company (SJM), Urban Outfitters (URBN)
Tuesday, November 22nd - Medtronic (MDT), Vmware (VMW), Autodesk (ADSK), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Baidu (BIDU), HP (HPQ), Best Buy (BBY), Warner Music Group (WMG), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS)
Wednesday, November 23rd - Deere (DE)
What We Read Last Week
Bankman-Fried Spun His Spending Spree, and Investors Let It Slide (The Information)
Elizabeth Holmes Is Sentenced to More Than 11 Years for Fraud (New York Times)